With the Lok Sabha elections looming, many politicians across the country are seen switching parties before the elections. While sometimes such party switches lead to victories, at other times they result in defeats. Therefore, it is crucial to understand before the upcoming Lok Sabha elections whether changing parties increases the chances of winning for politicians who switch sides.
What is the Win Percentage of Party Switching Politicians?
When we look at the numbers, the win percentage of politicians who switch parties is declining. According to media reports, in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the win percentage of party-switching politicians was 15%. However, this percentage has been on a downward trend since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In 2019, the win percentage of party-switching politicians dropped to an all-time low of 2.4%. Historically, the highest win percentage for party-switching politicians was recorded in 1977.
If we simplify this in easier terms, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, approximately 8,000 candidates tried their luck, out of which 195 candidates contested after switching parties. This means that about 2.4% of candidates contested the elections after switching parties. However, out of these, only 29 candidates emerged victorious. According to statistics, the highest number of party-switching candidates was seen in 1980, with around 377 candidates switching parties.
Recent Party Switches
In recent times, we’ve witnessed several notable politicians changing parties. For instance, BJP MP from Hisar, Brijendra Singh, has switched to the Congress party. Similarly, Geeta Kora, who was a Congress MP, has joined the BJP. Now, the BJP will field her from Singhbhum in Jharkhand. Such instances raise the question of whether changing parties indeed increases the win percentage of politicians.
It’s worth noting that apart from these examples, many other politicians have switched parties. However, it remains to be seen whether the win percentage of party-switching politicians will increase in this election or if the trend of declining win percentages will continue.
The phenomenon of politicians changing parties before elections is not uncommon. However, recent trends indicate a decline in the win percentage of such politicians. As we approach the Lok Sabha elections, it will be interesting to observe whether party-switching politicians can defy the odds and secure victories or if the declining trend persists.