The Indian Meteorological Department has released a significant update regarding the monsoon. According to IMD, there’s a higher probability of above-normal rainfall during the 2024 monsoon season in India, with the likelihood of La Niña conditions developing by August-September.
For the Southwest Monsoon season of 2024, IMD has predicted above-normal rainfall across the country from June to September, which bodes well for agricultural prospects.
In most parts of the country, except for some regions in North-West, East, and North-East India where below-normal rainfall is expected, there’s a forecast of above-normal rainfall. Favorable La Niña conditions, positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and below-normal snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere during the previous three months (January to March 2024) indicate increased precipitation during this monsoon season.
Director-General of IMD, Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, stated that currently, moderate La Niña conditions are prevailing in the equatorial Pacific region, and climate models indicate the likelihood of La Niña conditions intensifying during the onset of the monsoon and neutral conditions during its withdrawal.
In the South-West Monsoon season of 2024, it’s expected that:
- Rainfall across the country will be above normal (>106% of the Long Period Average).
- The average seasonal rainfall for the entire country, with a ±5% model error, is expected to be 106%. The Long Period Average (LPA) of monsoon rainfall in India, based on data from 1971-2020, is 87 cm.
- Coastal and central Pacific Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing. Climate models suggest the development of positive IOD conditions during the monsoon season.
- During the last three months (January to March 2024), snow cover was below normal in the Northern Hemisphere. The snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere during winter and spring is inversely related to monsoon rainfall.
State-wise Monsoon Expectations:
- Above-normal rainfall is predicted in more than 20 states including Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Chandigarh, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Puducherry, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, and Daman and Diu.
- Normal rainfall is expected in Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh.
- Below-normal rainfall is forecasted in Odisha, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura.
With these forecasts, it’s important for authorities and communities to prepare adequately for potential flooding, landslides, and other weather-related hazards during the monsoon season.